Market Pulse
Futures are pointing modestly higher this morning after Wednesday's post-jobs wobble. S&P 500 futures +0.3%, Dow futures +0.3%, Nasdaq futures +0.25%.
Yesterday's delayed January jobs report landed like a grenade: 130,000 nonfarm payrolls vs. the 53,000 consensus, unemployment falling to 4.3%. Not exactly the labor market softness the rate-cut crowd was counting on. The result? Markets initially sold off, Dow slipped 0.1% to 50,121, S&P basically flat at 6,941, Nasdaq down 0.2%.
The real story is in the rate expectations. CME FedWatch now prices a 93.6% chance of a June cut -- but the summer timeline is stretching. The 10-year pushed to 4.17%, and the 2-year sits at 3.51%. The Fed funds rate is 3.50-3.75% after the FOMC held in January (10-2 vote), and Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair adds a wildcard to the equation.
Gold continues its extraordinary 2026 run -- hovering around $5,075/oz after touching $5,088 yesterday. Up nearly 10% in a month, 73% year-over-year. The all-time high of $5,608 set in January is within striking distance. This isn't speculation anymore -- it's a structural bid driven by central bank buying and geopolitical hedging.
Bitcoin is struggling. Down to roughly $67,500, failing to reclaim $70K, sitting below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages with RSI at 30. That's oversold territory, but the sellers aren't done. Down from $84K in late January -- a brutal 20% haircut in two weeks. Robinhood prediction markets had it near $57,750 overnight. The crypto winter isn't over.
Oil is firmer -- WTI around $64.92 (+0.45%), Brent at $69.63 (+0.80%). U.S. crude inventories jumped 8.5 million barrels last week, but the Iran risk premium is doing the heavy lifting. The U.S. shot down an Iranian drone near the USS Abraham Lincoln last week, nuclear talks in Oman yielded no breakthroughs Sunday, and Trump's "massive armada" buildup continues. Strait of Hormuz risk is real and priced in.
Overnight: Nikkei surged 2.28%. FTSE 100 +1.17%. DAX -0.53%. Hang Seng +0.31%. Asia continues to outperform the U.S. for the best yearly start this century.
The THOR View
Yesterday's jobs report is the data point that matters most this week -- and it's telling a clear story: the economy isn't breaking. 130K jobs when the Street expected 53K. Unemployment at 4.3%, not drifting higher. This isn't an economy that needs emergency rate cuts.
The system sees this clearly. THOR SDQ Index Rotation is positioned 50/50 in the S&P and the Dow, with Nasdaq essentially off. When the jobs report is strong and rates are repricing higher, that's not a tech-friendly environment. Nasdaq is 60% technology by weight. The system rotated away before the underperformance, and yesterday validated that call -- Nasdaq was the weakest index on a day when good economic news should have been celebrated.
THOR Low Volatility Index has 7 of 10 sectors risk-on, with Technology, Financials, and Real Estate off. Energy led the market yesterday (+2.6%) -- a sector the system has on. Financials lagged (-1.5%) -- a sector the system has off. That's signal processing doing exactly what it's designed to do.
The Iran situation is the wildcard nobody's pricing properly. U.S.-Iran nuclear talks failed in Oman. The military buildup is real. Drones are being shot down. If this escalates, oil spikes and defensive positioning wins. The system doesn't predict geopolitics -- but it's already positioned for turbulence by avoiding the most rate-sensitive and growth-dependent corners of the market.
Signal Watch
THOR Risk Gauge: 8/10 -- Bullish
Heavily invested, broad market exposure with growth-sensitive sectors avoided. The system is bullish on equities but selective about where.
THOR SDQ Index Rotation -- Current Positioning
Index | Signal | Weight |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 (SPY) | 🟢 RISK ON | 48.48% |
Dow Jones (DIA) | 🟢 RISK ON | 49.02% |
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 🔴 RISK OFF | 0.53% |
Cash (BIL) | -- | 0.93% |
THOR Low Volatility Index -- Current Positioning
Sector | Signal | Weight |
|---|---|---|
Materials (XLB) | 🟢 RISK ON | 14.97% |
Energy (XLE) | 🟢 RISK ON | 14.58% |
Industrials (XLI) | 🟢 RISK ON | 14.41% |
Consumer Disc (XLY) | 🟢 RISK ON | 14.08% |
Consumer Staples (XLP) | 🟢 RISK ON | 14.02% |
Healthcare (XLV) | 🟢 RISK ON | 13.20% |
Utilities (XLU) | 🟢 RISK ON | 12.63% |
Cash (BIL) | -- | 0.90% |
Technology (XLK) | 🔴 RISK OFF | 0.54% |
Financials (XLF) | 🔴 RISK OFF | 0.42% |
Real Estate (XLRE) | 🔴 RISK OFF | 0.00% |
Positioning as of January 30, 2026. No changes from prior edition.
One Thing to Watch
Friday's CPI report. After yesterday's hot jobs number, inflation data just became the most important print of the month. If CPI comes in above expectations, the summer rate-cut timeline is dead. If it's soft, the June cut stays alive. The 10-year yield at 4.17% is the market's current bet -- Friday tells us if that bet is right or wrong. The system will respond if the data shifts the regime. That's the point.
The Signal is published weekdays by THOR Funds. Current positioning reflects live ETF holdings as of the most recent rebalance. This is not investment advice -- it's what the data is showing. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk.