The Relief Trade Nobody Trusts

Markets are bouncing on the lowest volume since Christmas Eve after Monday's Hormuz-driven selloff on whispers of a possible U.S.-Iran diplomatic path. WTI pulled back to the $97-$99 range from last session's $103 handle. Both THOR systems remain heavily defensive at a combined 21% equity exposure, with the rest in cash and T-Bills.

U.S. futures are modestly green in early Tuesday trade.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.19%

Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.34%

Dow futures up 0.13%

Russell 2000 futures lead at +0.43%.

Asia rallied overnight. The Kospi jumped 3.4%, the Nikkei gained 2.4%, the Hang Seng added 0.4%, and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.6%. The bid came from hope that U.S.-Iran negotiations could still produce a deal.

Europe is following through. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.6% to 0.8%, the DAX is higher by roughly 1.0%, the CAC 40 is up 0.4%, and the FTSE 100 is adding 0.3%. Cyclicals and tech are leading.

Treasuries have eased from Monday's highs. The 10-year sits at 4.28%, the 2-year at 3.77%, leaving the 2s/10s spread at about +51 basis points.

WTI crude is trading in the $97-$99 range, well off Monday's $103 area. Brent is near $99 and drifting below the panic highs. Gold holds around $4,730. Bitcoin rebounded to the $74,400-$74,900 range.

March PPI data at 8:30 AM ET is the morning's main event. Johnson & Johnson reports today. Fed's Barr speaks at 5:50 PM ET.

The gauge remains defensive. Equity exposure across both THOR systems sits at roughly 21%, with the rest in cash and T-Bills. The allocation tilt is entirely toward defensive sectors, with zero growth exposure.

Monday's "diplomacy failed" narrative is getting a 24-hour stress test. Comments pointing to a possible diplomatic path with Iran pulled enough heat out of crude to bring WTI from $103 back into the upper $90s. That's a meaningful move in energy, but it's not resolution.

The Hormuz blockade is still in effect. Twenty percent of global oil flows still pass through a chokepoint controlled by an active confrontation. A few encouraging comments from officials don't change the supply picture until ships are moving freely.

Both THOR systems read this the same way: until there's an actual agreement, not talk of one, the risk is still asymmetric. Index Rotation is 98% cash. Low Volatility holds two defensive sectors and sits 59% in T-Bills. A one-day bounce in risk assets doesn't warrant chasing exposure into an unresolved supply shock.

March PPI at 8:30 AM will add a layer. If producer prices were already running hot before the blockade pushed crude above $100, the Fed has less room to respond to a growth slowdown with cuts.

As of 4/13/26

As of 4/13/26

March PPI at 8:30 AM ET. This print covers the period before the Hormuz blockade, so it's a clean read on where inflation was trending with oil in the $90s. If it surprises to the upside, the baseline was already uncomfortable before crude ripped above $100. Iran headlines are driving attention this morning, but the inflation picture underneath will matter more for the rate path through year-end.

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Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com