TL;DR
Futures have reversed overnight losses and are pointing higher, but the signals underneath tell a different story. Broad momentum remains constructive at 74% risk-on, but recent flips in consumer discretionary, financials, and technology suggest the models are trimming growth exposure and leaning into defensive sectors.
Market Pulse
Futures as of 7:12 AM ET:
Dow Jones futures: 49,783 — up 171 points (+0.34%)
S&P 500 futures: 6,896.50 — up 36 points (+0.52%)
Nasdaq 100 futures: 24,947.50 — up 179.75 points (+0.73%)
Rates & Commodities:
Gold futures: $4,927.79 (+1.00%), pushing toward $5,000
Silver futures: $75.76 (+3.24%)
Brent crude: $69.12 (+2.61%)
10-year yield near 4.06%
Catalysts today: FOMC meeting minutes at 2:00 PM ET are the main event, with investors parsing how the Fed frames its rate path. Housing starts, durable goods orders, and industrial production data are also on deck. Earnings from Analog Devices, Occidental Petroleum, and Moody's before the bell. UK inflation came in softer at 3.0%, helping global yields ease.
Risk Gauge
6 — Slightly Bullish
Nearly fully invested with minimal cash, and 74% of signal configurations remain risk-on. However, a cluster of recent risk-off flips in financials, consumer discretionary, and technology temper the reading. Constructive but cautious — leaning in while hedging selectively.
The THOR View
Markets are entering a stretch where the data will do the talking. The FOMC minutes are the main event — not for what the Fed did (we already know), but for how they're framing the path forward. Any hawkish lean on inflation persistence could rattle a market that has been pricing in rate relief.
Despite this morning's green futures, the underlying rotation is worth paying attention to. Our adaptive models are positioned across all three major indices with roughly equal weight between the S&P 500 and the Dow, and a minimal Nasdaq allocation. That light Nasdaq exposure is by design.
On the sector side, the heaviest weights are in materials, energy, industrials, consumer staples, and utilities. Technology and financials are near-zero weight — those moved to risk-off earlier this month. The pattern is clear: the models are favoring the real economy over growth and momentum. When defensive sectors flip risk-on while consumer discretionary and financials flip risk-off in the same week, the data is telling us to stay invested but rotate toward resilience.
Signal Watch
Index Rotation Signals (as of 2/17/2026):
Index | Signal | Status |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Dow Jones | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Nasdaq 100 (regular) | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Nasdaq 100 (fast) | Risk-Off | 🔴 |
Low Volatility Sector Signals (as of 2/17/2026):
Sector | Signal | Status |
|---|---|---|
Materials (XLB) | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Healthcare (XLV) | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Consumer Staples (XLP) | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Energy (XLE) | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Industrials (XLI) | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Utilities (XLU) | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Real Estate (XLRE) | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Consumer Disc. (XLY) | Risk-Off | 🔴 |
Financials (XLF) | Risk-Off | 🔴 |
Technology (XLK) | Risk-Off | 🔴 |
One Thing to Watch
The FOMC minutes drop at 2:00 PM ET. With the Nasdaq fast signal flashing red since early February and technology among the sectors being trimmed, any hawkish surprise could accelerate the rotation out of growth and into the defensive names our models already favor. Watch how the long end of the curve reacts — that's where the real signal will be.
Brad Roth
CIO, THOR Financial Technologies
This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk.