TL;DR
Futures are modestly green to close out the first half, the growth index leading by a touch.
Monday was a broad rally, not a narrow one. The blue-chip average closed above 52,000 for the first time, the S&P 500 rose about 1.2%, the growth index gained about 2.1%, and the small caps finished near flat.
Both systematic strategies close the half near fully invested, across all three benchmarks and seven real-economy sectors. The even-handed build sat on the right side of a month that paid blue chips and value, then paid tech back on Monday.
Market Pulse
As of 7:35 AM ET, Tuesday 6/30/26
U.S. futures are modestly higher to close out the half.
S&P 500 futures are up about 0.2%.
Nasdaq 100 futures add about 0.4%.
Dow futures are up about 0.2%.
Russell 2000 futures sit up about 0.2%.
The 10-year Treasury yield holds near 4.37%, the 2-year near 3.57%.
WTI crude trades near $70.70, roughly flat, Brent near $73.90.
Gold runs near $4,040, soft after Monday's slide.
The fear gauge sits near 17.6.
Bitcoin trades near $60,000.
Today closes the first half, the second quarter, and the month at once, so expect some end-of-period repositioning into the bell. The data calendar is quiet today and front-loaded this week, with the June jobs report pulled forward to Thursday ahead of the holiday weekend.
THOR Risk Gauge
Bullish. The session is calm and broad, with the fear gauge near 17.6 and the blue-chip average finishing Monday at a record. Long-end yields have eased toward 4.37% and the war premium is out of crude near $70, both supports under the cyclical, real-economy parts of the market. The check on the read is the calendar, with the half closing today and the June jobs report landing Thursday.
The THOR View
The blue-chip average did something Monday it had never done, closing above 52,000. It was the quiet leader of June while the crowded growth names took their lumps on the cost of building out AI. The index strategy holds all three major benchmarks at roughly even thirds, the blue-chip, broad-market, and growth gauges each near a third of the mix. That construction never had to call the winner. When the gains ran wide Monday, it caught the record in the blue chips and the rebound in tech at once, because it stood in both.
The even-weight sector strategy tells the same story from a different seat. Industrials sit among its largest positions, the basic-materials names right alongside, two corners of the real economy catching the money that left expensive growth this month. The tailwind is rates. The ten-year has eased toward 4.37%, and lower long-end yields plus cheaper energy near $70 land on the capital-heavy, cyclical parts of the market. Technology is still the single heaviest sector here, near a sixth of the mix, but capped there by design. So Monday's chip rebound paid, and the weeks of growth-name selling before it landed soft. The names still at zero are the classic defensives that have not confirmed a trend.
Signal Watch
THOR Index Rotation
As of 6/29/26
Position | Ticker | Weight | Signal | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dow | DIA | 33.2% | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Nasdaq 100 | QQQ | 32.9% | Risk-On | 🟢 |
S&P 500 | SPY | 32.8% | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Cash & T-Bills | BIL | 1.0% | — | — |
All three benchmarks sit near a third of the mix, the index strategy fully invested as the half closes. The even split is the design, no single index dominating the way the cap-weighted growth gauge does on its own. The blue-chip average set its record from that even footing.
THOR Low Volatility
As of 6/29/26
Sector | Ticker | Weight | Signal | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Technology (XLK) | XLK | 16.0% | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Industrials (XLI) | XLI | 14.2% | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Financials (XLF) | XLF | 13.7% | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Real Estate (XLRE) | XLRE | 13.7% | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Utilities (XLU) | XLU | 13.7% | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Consumer Disc (XLY) | XLY | 13.1% | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Materials (XLB) | XLB | 13.1% | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Energy (XLE) | XLE | 0.0% | Risk-Off | 🔴 |
Healthcare (XLV) | XLV | 0.0% | Risk-Off | 🔴 |
Consumer Staples (XLP) | XLP | 0.0% | Risk-Off | 🔴 |
Cash & T-Bills | BIL | 2.5% | — | — |
Seven real-economy sectors run at roughly even weight, technology capped near a sixth of the mix rather than the third it commands in the cap-weighted index. Industrials and the basic-materials names anchor the value side that led the month. Energy, Healthcare and Consumer Staples stay at zero, the corners that have not confirmed a trend. Cash and T-bills sit near 2.5%.
THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic
As of 6/29/26
Holding | Ticker | Weight |
|---|---|---|
FT Vest Gold Strategy Target Income | IGLD | 13.2% |
Amplify Transformational Data Sharing | BLOK | 8.9% |
ProShares UltraPro QQQ | TQQQ | 8.4% |
ProShares UltraShort Yen | YCS | 8.1% |
Invesco Diversified Commodity Strategy | PDBC | 6.3% |
Energy Select Sector SPDR | XLE | 5.8% |
NVIDIA | NVDA | 3.6% |
Broadcom | AVGO | 3.4% |
Roundhill Magnificent Seven | MAGS | 3.4% |
Simplify Interest Rate Hedge | PFIX | 3.4% |
Other (21 holdings) | — | 35.5% |
The actively managed strategy runs near 59% equity, 22% commodity, 11% specialty and currency, and 7% fixed income. The gold-income position sits at the top of the mix and anchors the commodity side, with a diversified commodity stake and an energy position beside it. A short-yen position and a rate hedge carry the macro view that the yen stays weak and long-end rates hold higher for longer.
One Thing to Watch
Thursday brings the June jobs report, pulled forward a day ahead of the holiday weekend. The labor read matters most to the real-economy sectors the even-weight strategy leans on, where the tailwind has been easing long-end yields near 4.37%. A number that holds keeps that thesis intact, while a hot read would put the rate relief, and the value trade riding it, to the test.
Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies
This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com