TL;DR
Futures are flat Friday morning as traders wait on economic data and a potential tariff court ruling. Fund flows tell a different story — U.S. equity funds just posted their largest weekly inflows in five weeks. Our adaptive models remain heavily allocated to equities, with the risk gauge at its most bullish reading in weeks.
Market Pulse
Futures as of 7:10 AM ET
S&P 500 futures: 6,871 (-6.00, -0.09%)
Nasdaq 100 futures: 24,839 (-20, -0.08%)
Dow futures: Little changed
Rates & Commodities
10-Year Treasury: $97.09 — bonds ticked higher overnight
Gold: $459.56 — near all-time highs as safe-haven demand persists
Crude Oil: $81.19 — traders shrugging off U.S.-Iran tensions for now
Today's Catalysts
• February flash PMI data (S&P Global) — key read on manufacturing vs. services divergence
• Potential federal court ruling on tariff authority — could reshape trade policy expectations
• Existing home sales (10 AM ET)
Risk Gauge
Both of our adaptive strategies are running near full equity exposure with minimal cash reserves, and 75% of all signal configurations remain risk-on. The data shows broad participation across sectors and indices.
The THOR View
The market wants to go higher, but it needs a reason. That's the story this Friday morning. Indices pulled back modestly yesterday — the S&P lost 19 points, the Dow shed 267 — but the selling lacked conviction. Fund flow data released overnight showed U.S. equity funds attracted their biggest weekly haul in over a month. Money is moving off the sidelines, not toward it.
The adaptive models are reflecting that same confidence. Across our index-tracking strategy, the allocation is split almost evenly between the S&P 500 and the Dow, with essentially zero in cash. On the sector side, the models have concentrated exposure in materials, energy, industrials, and consumer staples — a mix of real-economy sectors that benefit from steady growth and inflation hedging. Technology and financials remain at minimal allocations, which tells you the models see better risk-adjusted opportunities in the old economy right now.
Next week is the real test. Earnings from the largest AI chipmaker will either validate the narrative that enterprise AI spending is accelerating or crack the foundation beneath this rally. A tariff court ruling today could add another variable. But the positioning is clear: the models are leaning in, not pulling back. That's worth paying attention to.
Signal Watch
Index Rotation (as of 2/20/2026)
Index | Allocation | Signal | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
SPY | 48.0% | Risk-On | 🟢 |
DIA | 49.6% | Risk-On | 🟢 |
QQQ | 0.5% | Risk-Off | 🔴 |
BIL | 0.9% | — | Cash |
Low Volatility (as of 2/20/2026)
Sector | Ticker | Signal | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
Materials | XLB | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Energy | XLE | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Industrials | XLI | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Consumer Staples | XLP | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Health Care | XLV | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Utilities | XLU | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Real Estate | XLRE | Risk-On | 🟢 |
Consumer Disc. | XLY | Risk-Off | 🔴 |
Technology | XLK | Risk-Off | 🔴 |
Financials | XLF | Risk-Off | 🔴 |
One Thing to Watch
Nvidia earnings (Wednesday, Feb 25). The entire AI trade hangs on whether data center revenue guidance clears the $40B bar. A beat fuels the next leg higher. A miss — or even tepid guidance — sends shockwaves through every growth name in the market. Worth keeping front of mind heading into next week.
Brad Roth
CIO, THOR Financial Technologies
This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk.
Distributed by PINE Distributors LLC.