TL;DR
Markets reopen to a mixed tape after the Presidents' Day holiday, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2% and Nasdaq leading the decline, off 0.6% on renewed AI spending concerns. The 10-year yield has slipped to ~4.07% as rate-cut expectations build, and oil is under pressure near $63.50 on US-Iran talk headlines. Our systems remain positioned for the value-over-growth regime that's defined 2026 so far.
Market Pulse
Futures (pre-market, 7:17 AM ET):
Dow Jones futures: 49,560 (-9 pts, flat)
S&P 500 futures: 6,836 (-14 pts, -0.21%)
Nasdaq 100 futures: 24,656 (-148 pts, -0.60%)
Thin liquidity dominates coming off the long weekend. European bourses opened soft, and Asian markets were muted with Lunar New Year closures still thinning flow.
Rates & Commodities:
10-Year Treasury: ~4.07% (down from 4.09% pre-holiday -- two-to-three cuts now priced for 2026)
Gold: ~$4,960/oz (pulling back from record $5,042 weekly close -- second straight session of declines)
WTI Crude: ~$63.50/bbl (US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva weighing on supply risk premium)
Bitcoin: ~$68,800 (consolidating below $70K resistance, institutional flows still positive)
Catalysts this week: Shortened trading week. Watch for ADP employment, FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Q4 GDP revision, and PCE inflation -- the Fed's preferred gauge. The dollar is firm with DXY at 97.25, which continues to pressure commodities.
THOR Risk Gauge
Bullish
Both funds heavily invested in equities with a defensive tilt. Tech and Nasdaq OFF tempers the score despite high overall equity exposure. The system says: stay in the game, but don't chase the names that got you here.
The THOR View
The post-holiday tape tells us what we already know: mega-cap tech is losing its monopoly on leadership. Nasdaq futures are underperforming the Dow again. AI spending anxiety, elevated valuations, and a stronger dollar are headwinds for the growth trade.
Meanwhile, the value rotation that our signals identified entering 2026 keeps compounding. The THOR Index Rotation strategy is split roughly 50/50 between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 -- a clear signal that broad-market value is where the system sees the best risk-adjusted opportunity. The Nasdaq 100 allocation sits near zero. That's not a bug. That's the signal.
On the low-volatility side, we're equal-weight across seven defensive sectors -- Materials, Energy, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care -- with minimal exposure to Technology, Financials, and Real Estate. This is exactly the kind of positioning you want when yields are falling, the dollar is rising, and the market is rotating beneath the surface.
Gold pulling back from $5,000+ doesn't change the structural bid. Central banks are still accumulating. The dip is a function of dollar strength and profit-taking, not a regime change.
Signal Watch
THOR Index Rotation (as of 2/13/2026):
Allocation | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|
Dow Jones Industrial Average | ~49.7% | 🟢 |
S&P 500 | ~47.8% | 🟢 |
Nasdaq 100 | ~0.5% | 🔴 |
T-Bills / Cash | ~2.0% | -- |
THOR Low Volatility Index (as of 2/13/2026):
Sector | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|
Materials | ~15.5% | 🟢 |
Energy | ~14.9% | 🟢 |
Industrials | ~14.5% | 🟢 |
Consumer Staples | ~14.4% | 🟢 |
Utilities | ~13.0% | 🟢 |
Consumer Discretionary | ~12.9% | 🟢 |
Health Care | ~12.9% | 🟢 |
Technology | ~0.4% | 🔴 |
Financials | ~0.4% | 🔴 |
Real Estate | ~0.4% | 🔴 |
One Thing to Watch
FOMC Minutes (Wednesday). The market is pricing 62 basis points of easing this year -- roughly two-and-a-half cuts. If the minutes reveal a more hawkish tone than the dovish drift in yields suggests, expect a quick repricing in rates and a growth-to-value rotation accelerator. Either way, the adaptive positioning our systems maintain means we don't need to guess. We follow the signal, not the noise.
Brad Roth
CIO, THOR Financial Technologies
The Signal is published by THOR Funds for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For standardized performance and prospectus, visit thorfunds.com. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
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