Iran Strikes Jolt Markets - Oil Spikes, Futures Sink

TL;DR

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have sent oil surging past $72 and Dow futures down over 500 points to start the week. The flight to safety is on - gold, Treasuries, and the dollar are all catching bids. THOR's systems had already rotated out of the most vulnerable exposures before the geopolitical shock hit.

Futures as of 7:00 AM ET, March 2

Dow futures are down roughly 500 points (-1.05%)

S&P 500 futures off 0.47%

Nasdaq futures down 0.38%.

The gap-down follows the most significant geopolitical escalation in years - the U.S.-Israeli military operation that killed Iran's Supreme Leader over the weekend.

Oil is the story. WTI crude surged 7.4% to $72/barrel, Brent jumped 8.5% to $79. JPMorgan strategists are floating $120/barrel scenarios if the Strait of Hormuz - which handles roughly 20% of global oil transit - faces disruption. That's not the base case, but it's not fantasy either.

Gold (GLD) closed Friday at $483.75, silver (SLV) at $84.99 - both bid as safe-haven demand accelerates. The 20-year Treasury (TLT) held at $90.82, catching a bid despite Friday's hotter-than-expected PPI print. Bonds are trading the war, not the inflation data.

Bitcoin and crypto remain open but directionless as traditional risk assets reprice.

Airlines are already canceling flights across the Middle East - Delta, United, and American have suspended routes through early March. Amazon Web Services reported an outage after "objects" hit a UAE data center. This conflict is bleeding into real economic activity fast.

Cautiously Constructive

The system remains majority risk-on (77% of signals) but with meaningful defensive positioning already in place. Tech, Financials, and Nasdaq are OFF.

Here's what matters: the system moved before the bombs dropped.

THOR Index Rotation had already shifted to a 50/50 Dow-S&P split with Nasdaq turned OFF - reducing tech concentration by design. When megacap names sold off last week (Nvidia -4.2% Friday alone), the fund's exposure to that pain was minimal.

On the sector side, THOR Low Volatility has Tech, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary switched OFF. Energy? ON at nearly 15% weight. Healthcare and Utilities - classic defensive sectors - are both ON. Materials, which benefit from commodity inflation, are the largest allocation at 15.5%.

This is the value proposition in action. You don't need to predict a war in Iran to be positioned for one. The signals detected deteriorating momentum in tech and financials weeks ago. The rotation happened systematically. Now, with oil spiking and risk assets selling off, the portfolio is tilted toward the sectors that benefit from exactly this environment.

THOR Index Rotation (as of 2/13/26)

THOR Low Volatility (as of 2/12/26)

Friday's jobs report. Before the Iran escalation, the market was already wrestling with sticky inflation (January PPI came in hot at +0.5% MoM). Now layer in oil at $72+ and potential supply chain disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. If the jobs number comes in strong, the Fed is boxed - inflation rising, geopolitical risk elevated, and no room to cut. If it's weak, the flight to safety intensifies. Either way, volatility isn't going anywhere this week.

Brad Roth
CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com