Blockade Monday, Record Friday

Monday opened with a Strait of Hormuz blockade and WTI above $103. Friday closed with the S&P above 7,100 at a fresh all-time high. - Both THOR systems shifted from roughly 21% to approximately 66% combined equity exposure over the course of the trading week. - Oil's single-session drop on Friday, one of its largest in years, confirmed the regime shift the tape had been pricing since Tuesday.

Monday April 14 opened heavy. The weekend Islamabad talks failed. The Hormuz blockade covered roughly 20% of global oil flows. WTI was trading above $103, S&P futures were pointing down half a percent, and both systems were 98% in cash or T-Bills. Looked defensive for a while.

Then the diplomacy worked.

Tuesday brought comments suggesting a credible deal path, and crude pulled from $103 to the high $90s. Wednesday, President Trump said talks were "very close to over." The S&P 500 set a new all-time high on Tuesday April 15, closing at 7,022.95 for the first close above 7,000 ever. Bank earnings arrived on cue: JPMorgan posted its highest-ever quarterly trading revenue, Bank of America's Q1 profit grew 17% year-over-year, Morgan Stanley beat estimates. The Nasdaq ran its 11th consecutive up session through Thursday.

By Thursday, the S&P was in the 7,041-7,078 range. The broad market had already validated the re-risk.

Friday belonged to oil. Peace progress hardened, and WTI posted one of its largest single-session drops in years, ending the week roughly 12% below Monday's panic highs. Equity breadth widened into the close: the Dow gained 1.77%, the Nasdaq added 1.31%, and the Russell 2000 led at +2.16%. The S&P 500 closed Friday with SPY at $710.14, a new all-time high.

Week (April 10 close to April 17 close):

S&P 500: approximately +4.5%, new all-time high above 7,100 (prior close: 6,816.89)

Nasdaq 100: approximately +5.5%

10-year yield: 4.25% to approximately 4.27%

VIX: 19.23 to approximately 17

WTI crude: $98.65 to approximately $87 (down roughly 12%)

Gold: $4,789 to $4,815

Bitcoin: $71,000 to $75,682

Both systems moved substantially this week.

Index Rotation entered Monday in near-full cash, roughly 98% T-Bills with 1.6% USD. By Thursday's holdings update, the portfolio held approximately half in the Nasdaq 100 and half in cash. Two index positions remain risk-off. The system re-entered through one index, not three.

Low Volatility carried Utilities and Energy at roughly 40% combined at week's start, the rest in T-Bills. By Thursday: Energy rotated out, and Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Utilities each hold roughly 20%, with about 19% in T-Bills. Cash dropped from 59% to 19% in a single execution cycle. The book went from defensive-with-tail to growth-oriented.

Combined equity exposure across both systems: roughly 21% at Monday's open, approximately 66% by Friday's close. That's the largest single-week shift in positioning this year.

The entire week was a geopolitical trade. The Hormuz blockade reversed on a peace deal that wasn't fully signed by Friday. That context matters.

The S&P 500 is up roughly 10% since late March. The primary driver has been Iran de-escalation, not a fundamental re-rating. Bank earnings were excellent. JPMorgan's Q1 trading revenue was the highest in company history. The sector broadly confirmed consumer health and clean loan books. Tech printed new highs. But the underlying catalyst for nearly all of it is geopolitical risk premium deflating.

WTI was above $103 Monday morning. The sector read risk-off by the end of the trading day. The system treats supply-disruption crude spikes as noise, not trend, and that read paid off. Energy holders got whipsawed hard on Friday's drop.

Financials had a legitimate week. Bank earnings were strong across the board. But three-month trend damage doesn't heal on a one-week earnings print. The sector hasn't cleared the bar. That's not a commentary on the business. The system is reading the multi-week price structure, not a single quarter's press release.

The rate backdrop held stable. The 10-year moved from 4.25% to roughly 4.27% for the week. VIX came from 19.23 to approximately 17. Oil's drop removes one of the more persistent near-term inflation pressure points. That supports the current posture. The Iran deal not being finalized is the obvious risk to all of it.

The gauge reads slightly bullish. Combined equity exposure across both systems sits at approximately 66%, up sharply from the 21% posture carried Monday morning. The rotation sleeve holds the Nasdaq 100 at half the portfolio, the other half in cash. The low volatility sleeve runs four sectors at roughly 20% each with 19% in reserves. Signal reads across both published systems lean risk-on by a clear majority. Oil's decline removes one of the stickier near-term inflation concerns. The Iran deal hasn't been formally signed, and any reversal in that process would test this positioning quickly. The cash in both sleeves isn't indecision.

THOR Index Rotation - as of 4/17/26

One index at half the portfolio, two at zero, half in cash. The system re-entered through the Nasdaq 100, the week's clearest signal, and left the Dow and S&P 500 on the sideline. Eleven consecutive Nasdaq up sessions and AI-driven tech leadership were the earliest and cleanest trend read. The broader indexes confirmed later.

THOR Low Volatility - as of 4/17/26

Four sectors on, six off, 19% in cash. Technology leads at the top, Utilities held continuous from before the conflict started. Energy sits at zero despite a week where crude was the main macro headline. Financials had strong earnings but the three-month trend hasn't confirmed. Cash at 19% reflects a peace deal still in progress.

Podcast: Chris Tessin, founder of Acuitas Investments, joined this week's Behind the Ticker to break down AIMS, the Acuitas Multi-Manager Small Cap ETF. Rather than a single portfolio manager picking stocks, AIMS aggregates multiple deeply researched, truly active small-cap managers into one ETF wrapper at a flat 75 basis points. Tessin walks through how the multi-manager model works, why active management has a real edge specifically in small cap where information inefficiencies exist, and why the current valuation setup in small cap makes this worth attention. Listen on Spotify

JPMorgan Traders Blow Past Expectations With Record Haul - Bloomberg, April 14 JPMorgan's trading desk printed its highest quarterly revenue ever. Elevated volatility across rates, FX, and commodities creates volume for institutional desks even when it punishes passive investors. This is the fundamental picture behind this week's bank earnings beat, and why the sector's signals are worth watching as the rate environment stabilizes.

The Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire: Issues to Watch - CSIS The week's equity rally rests on a diplomatic framework that isn't finalized. CSIS lays out the structural fault lines: Iran's internal political dynamics, Lebanon's contested role in the deal, and the specific triggers that could unwind what's still more agreement in principle than signed document. Worth reading before calling this resolved.

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria." - Sir John Templeton

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Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com