A Green Open After Five Red Weeks

Futures are solidly green to start a holiday-shortened week after the worst five-week stretch since 2022. All three major indexes are up roughly half a percent in premarket. Both THOR strategies snapshot index positions at close for Wednesday potential rebalance. The first possible changes since the Iran conflict began. Oil, gold, and metals are all higher. The April 6 ceasefire deadline is the week's real catalyst.

Futures as of 7:12 AM ET:

A relief rally to start the week. After five straight weeks of losses - the longest losing streak since 2022 - buyers are stepping in. The Nasdaq, Dow, and Russell 2000 are all in correction territory (down 10%+ from highs), and the S&P 500 is 7.2% off its peak, teetering on the edge. Only 18% of S&P stocks are above their 50-day moving average - the lowest breadth reading since April 2025.

WTI crude is at $101.23, up 1.6% this morning. Gold is $4,531.60, up 0.87% as investors buy the dip. Silver is $71.06, up 1.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield is down to 4.372%, dropping 6.8 basis points as bond buyers step in. The metals complex is green across the board - platinum up 1.85%, palladium up 1.63%.

This week: Dallas Fed Manufacturing today at 10:30 AM. NY Fed's John Williams speaks at 4 PM. ISM Manufacturing Tuesday. ADP Wednesday. Non-Farm Payrolls Friday - but markets close early Thursday and stay shut Friday for Good Friday. Trump's Iran ceasefire deadline is April 6.

Five weeks of selling, three major indexes in correction, and oil above $100. Today's green open is welcome but doesn't erase the damage. Both strategies remain invested - Index Rotation holds 97% equities in Dow and S&P 500, avoiding the worst-hit Nasdaq. Low Volatility is fully deployed across seven sectors with Energy leading at 18%. The positioning trend is flat with no recent changes, but last weeks price action could shift that.

The models run their weekly review into one of the most uncertain weeks of the year. Friday's selloff have put both Dow and S&P 500 - the two pillars of the Index Rotation strategy into focus. If either slips below the system's signal, the model moves to cash. Today's bounce helps, but we won't know until the close.

Energy continues to do the heavy lifting. THOR Low Volatility's 17.8% Energy weight was built when oil was in the $70s. The system detected trend and momentum well before the Strait of Hormuz closure sent crude past $100. Materials at 14.8%, Industrials at 13.8%, Consumer Staples at 13.7% - the rest of the portfolio is real-economy sectors with commodity pricing power.

Tech, Financials, and Real Estate are essentially zeroed out. Microsoft is down over 20% this quarter - its worst since late 2008. Tesla off 15% year-to-date. The system avoided that damage entirely.

On the index side, the Dow and S&P 500 allocation has outperformed a Nasdaq-heavy approach all month. But the honest read is that being long anything in a five-week correction has been painful. The system isn't designed to sidestep every drawdown - it's designed to be in the right parts of the market when drawdowns happen and to move to cash when the data says the damage is structural.

Tonight's rebalance will tell us which it is.

As of 3/27/26

As of 3/27/26

Not Friday's payrolls - it's Sunday, April 6. Trump's ceasefire deadline with Iran. If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't reopen by then, the administration has threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. That would send crude well past current levels and trigger a full-blown energy crisis. Markets won't wait until Sunday to react. Every diplomatic headline between now and then will drive outsized moves. The compressed holiday trading week amplifies everything.

Brad Roth
CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com