Brad Roth | The Signal

Oliver Buchannon

Brad Roth

Daily market signals from Brad Roth: THOR Funds & Host of Behind the Ticker Podcast. $THIR $THLV

Silver Ran 5% Overnight. Nobody Waited for the Jobs Number

Aug 7, 2026

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4 min read

Silver Ran 5% Overnight. Nobody Waited for the Jobs Number

Gold and silver bid hard into the July payrolls report while the volatility index sits at 15. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested, with utilities and healthcare doing the defensive work from inside the equity market rather than out of it.

The Fed Is Talking About Raising Rates. Hiring Came In at 44,000

Aug 6, 2026

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4 min read

The Fed Is Talking About Raising Rates. Hiring Came In at 44,000

Two officials floated a hike on the same afternoon private payrolls missed badly, and the July jobs report lands Friday morning. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested, with financials at full size as the position that gets paid directly off the front end of the curve.

AMD Doubled Its Data Center Sales. The Stock Is Down 8% Before the Open

Aug 5, 2026

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4 min read

AMD Doubled Its Data Center Sales. The Stock Is Down 8% Before the Open

A chipmaker beat on every line and lost it all overnight, and the options market now prices the growth benchmark for nearly nine points more turbulence than the S&P 500. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested, with six real-economy sectors at full size and both broad American averages closing at records.

Factories Say Prices Are the Worst Since the Pandemic. Nobody Sold

Aug 4, 2026

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4 min read

Factories Say Prices Are the Worst Since the Pandemic. Nobody Sold

A manufacturing survey put cost pressure above its pandemic-era peak and crude stopped falling the same morning, and the S&P 500 still closed 1.48% higher. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested, with materials at full size as the position whose revenue line is the price of things.

Oil Fell 6% Before the Open. Washington Was Busy Defending the Yen

Aug 3, 2026

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4 min read

Oil Fell 6% Before the Open. Washington Was Busy Defending the Yen

A collapse in crude pulled every Treasury maturity down with it, and the first American participation in a currency intervention in decades barely registered in U.S. stocks. Both published strategies open near fully invested, with real estate and the rest of the real-economy sectors at full size.

Three Fed Officials Voted to Hike. The Week Still Closed Green

Aug 2, 2026

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6 min read

Three Fed Officials Voted to Hike. The Week Still Closed Green

The most divided Fed meeting in a decade pushed the cost of thirty-year money to levels last seen in 2007, and then two earnings reports walked in and took the week back. Both published strategies finished the week owning the parts of the market that trade on results rather than on rate math.

Microsoft Gained 15% in a Day. Somebody Still Has to Power It

Jul 31, 2026

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4 min read

Microsoft Gained 15% in a Day. Somebody Still Has to Power It

Two earnings reports reversed a month of anxiety about what artificial intelligence costs, and the electricity underneath the build is the part that never traded on sentiment. The even-weight strategy runs six real-economy sectors inside twenty basis points of each other, with utilities at full size.

The Fed Chose Patience. The 30-Year Went Back to 2007

Jul 30, 2026

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4 min read

The Fed Chose Patience. The 30-Year Went Back to 2007

Rates stayed put with inflation at 4.2% and three officials dissenting for a hike, and the long end of the Treasury market rendered its verdict within the hour. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested, with healthcare stepping in at full size as the sector that gave up the least on the worst session since April 2025.

The Fed Decides at Two. Oil Spent the Night Making It Harder

Jul 29, 2026

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4 min read

The Fed Decides at Two. Oil Spent the Night Making It Harder

Fresh fighting in the Gulf sent crude up 5% overnight, clawing back a chunk of a three-session collapse just hours before a decision where a rate hike carries real odds. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested, with financials coming off a fresh 52-week high as the heaviest real-economy sector position.

Korea Lost 11% Overnight. The Fed Might Hike Tomorrow

Jul 28, 2026

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4 min read

Korea Lost 11% Overnight. The Fed Might Hike Tomorrow

A report that Nvidia is weighing a $250 billion backstop for OpenAI turned into an 11% crash in Seoul and another leg down in semiconductors. Dow futures are green anyway. The even-weight strategy walks into tomorrow's Fed decision spread across seven sectors, with materials and industrials picking up what cheaper oil and contracted build-out work pay out.

Two Quiet Nights in the Gulf. Oil Fell 7% Before Sunrise

Jul 27, 2026

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4 min read

Two Quiet Nights in the Gulf. Oil Fell 7% Before Sunrise

The US paused strikes on Iran for a second consecutive night, Tehran halted its own retaliation, and crude gave back seven percent in one overnight session. Equity markets on three continents are green, the long end is falling, and Wednesday's Fed decision suddenly has a cheaper inflation backdrop to work with.

Big Tech Lost Nearly $800 Billion. The Average Stock Barely Noticed

Jul 26, 2026

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7 min read

Big Tech Lost Nearly $800 Billion. The Average Stock Barely Noticed

Alphabet and Tesla told the market what the AI build actually costs, and the seven largest companies in America shed close to $800 billion in a single session. Underneath that, eight of eleven sectors finished the week higher and the equal-weight index closed green. The even-weight construction owned the half of the market that worked.

Tech Had Its Worst Day in a Month. The Dow Barely Blinked

Jul 24, 2026

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4 min read

Tech Had Its Worst Day in a Month. The Dow Barely Blinked

Alphabet and Tesla reopened the fight over what AI build-outs are worth, and the Nasdaq took its steepest loss in a month while the Dow fell a fraction as far. The rotation strategy walks in holding that average as its single heaviest position among three near-equal benchmark stakes, and the even-weight build stays anchored in the real-economy sectors that a growth-led drop leaves alone.

Alphabet Beat Everything. The Bill Came With It

Jul 23, 2026

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4 min read

Alphabet Beat Everything. The Bill Came With It

Revenue grew 24%, cloud grew 82%, and the stock is down more than 4% before the open because the company told the market it will spend as much as $205 billion this year. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested, with real estate at a near-full sector position on the receiving end of that same budget.

Everyone's Watching Alphabet Tonight. Oil Just Made the Louder Move

Jul 22, 2026

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4 min read

Everyone's Watching Alphabet Tonight. Oil Just Made the Louder Move

Brent cleared $95 for the first time in six weeks after Washington and Tehran both walked away from the table, and that is what has futures red into the biggest earnings night of the quarter. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested, with financials the heaviest real-economy position and every major benchmark owned in roughly equal thirds.

The Market Stopped Bracing for the Worst

Jul 21, 2026

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4 min read

The Market Stopped Bracing for the Worst

The fear gauge is falling for a second straight day and the chip trade is reviving as futures point higher, even with crude near $90 and a fresh 50% tariff on Canadian goods. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested, spread across three benchmarks and seven real-economy sectors, positioned to catch the bounce without leaning on any single name.

Stocks Try to Bounce. Oil and Gold Aren't Buying It

Jul 20, 2026

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4 min read

Stocks Try to Bounce. Oil and Gold Aren't Buying It

Futures point higher after a growth-led selloff dragged the chip complex into a bear market, yet crude sits near a one-month high and gold holds above $4,000, both still bid on a weekend of Gulf escalation. The even-weight construction caps technology near a sixth of the mix and spreads the rest across the real-economy sectors built for an inflation-tinged backdrop.

June Said Inflation Was Beaten. Oil Reopened the Case

Jul 19, 2026

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6 min read

June Said Inflation Was Beaten. Oil Reopened the Case

The soft June inflation prints were really a cheap-oil story, and oil came roaring back this week as the Strait of Hormuz seized up. Growth and the chip trade took the hit while the blue chips held their ground. The even-weight build caps technology near a sixth of the mix and spreads the rest across the real economy, on the cushioned side of a growth-led week.

Six Nights of Strikes. The Chip Trade Finally Blinked

Jul 17, 2026

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4 min read

Six Nights of Strikes. The Chip Trade Finally Blinked

The AI trade cracked from Taipei to Tokyo before New York woke up, and a widening war has crude on pace for its best week since April. Both systematic strategies own the trends that confirmed, with technology capped near a sixth of the even-weight mix and utilities at a full position.

Inflation Cooled Twice. Now Comes the Shopper

Jul 16, 2026

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4 min read

Inflation Cooled Twice. Now Comes the Shopper

Two soft inflation reads in two days pushed stocks back to record territory with the fear gauge near its lows. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested, spread across all three benchmarks and the seven real-economy sectors doing the market's broadening work.

Inflation Just Fell the Most Since 2020. The Market Didn't Wait

Jul 15, 2026

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4 min read

Inflation Just Fell the Most Since 2020. The Market Didn't Wait

June inflation posted its biggest monthly drop in five years, the largest banks blew past estimates, and the fear gauge slid back toward its lows. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested across all three benchmarks and seven real-economy sectors, positioned in the trends the softer read just rewarded.

Everyone Waited for Inflation. Oil Didn't

Jul 14, 2026

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4 min read

Everyone Waited for Inflation. Oil Didn't

June inflation, five of the largest banks, and the Fed chair before Congress all land in one session. But an overnight jump in crude on renewed Gulf tension pushed the ten-year to a two-month high and reopened the inflation question before the data even arrived. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested in the real-economy trends already working.

The Market Is Priced for Calm. Tuesday Tests It

Jul 13, 2026

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4 min read

The Market Is Priced for Calm. Tuesday Tests It

June inflation, the first big bank earnings, and Fed testimony all land Tuesday, into a market sitting at fresh record highs with the fear gauge near its lows. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested across all three major benchmarks and seven real-economy sectors, positioned for the trends already working rather than braced against the calendar.

The Chips Took the Lead Back. The Blue Chips Sat It Out

Jul 12, 2026

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6 min read

The Chips Took the Lead Back. The Blue Chips Sat It Out

Leadership swung back to the AI names this week, carrying the S&P and the Nasdaq to fresh highs while the Dow slipped, and a record foreign listing put the memory boom back on the front page. Both systematic strategies own all three major benchmarks and seven real-economy sectors, on the right side of the rotation whichever way it turns.

The Chips Had Their Week. Tuesday Belongs to the Banks

Jul 10, 2026

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4 min read

The Chips Had Their Week. Tuesday Belongs to the Banks

Q2 earnings season opens today with the airlines, but the week that counts starts Tuesday, when four of the largest banks report into the same morning as June inflation. Financials are the second-largest position in the even-weight strategy, and both systematic strategies open near fully invested.