Brad Roth | The Signal

Oliver Buchannon

Brad Roth

Daily market signals from Brad Roth: THOR Funds & Host of Behind the Ticker Podcast. $THIR $THLV

The Fed Changed Hands. The Rally Didn't Flinch

Jun 21, 2026

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7 min read

The Fed Changed Hands. The Rally Didn't Flinch

Kevin Warsh held rates at his first meeting but the projections turned hawkish, with a hike back in the conversation for the first time this cycle. Stocks finished green across the board anyway, the blue chips at a record, and the index strategy widened to all three major benchmarks as the Dow earned its way back in.

A Rate Hike Is Back on the Table. Futures Climbed Anyway

Jun 18, 2026

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4 min read

A Rate Hike Is Back on the Table. Futures Climbed Anyway

The new chair's first meeting put a possible hike back in the conversation and sent yields higher, yet both systematic strategies walked in built across the real economy, the equal-weight construction never crowded into the long-duration names that took the brunt.

The Fed Decides Tomorrow.

Jun 16, 2026

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4 min read

The Fed Decides Tomorrow.

Crude has handed back its entire war premium and the front end is easing the day before the Fed, while both systematic strategies walk in fully invested across the cyclical and materials names that cheaper energy pays first.

Stocks Are Flying Into a Fed That Can't Cut

Jun 15, 2026

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4 min read

Stocks Are Flying Into a Fed That Can't Cut

A possible Iran deal cracked crude below $80 and sent tech-led futures higher, two days before the Fed decides. Both systematic strategies walk in fully invested across the real economy, with the rate-sensitive names already sized for a decision like this one.

Inflation Hit a Three-Year High. Stocks Rallied Anyway

Jun 14, 2026

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6 min read

Inflation Hit a Three-Year High. Stocks Rallied Anyway

May inflation ran 4.2% and erased the last of the year's rate cuts. Stocks climbed regardless, led by the small caps and value names the equal-weight strategies favor by construction.

Oil Spiked on the War. A Peace Deal Is Erasing It

Jun 12, 2026

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4 min read

Oil Spiked on the War. A Peace Deal Is Erasing It

A reported path to reopen the Strait of Hormuz knocks four percent off crude and lifts stock futures. The cheaper-fuel tailwind runs straight to the industrial and consumer names both systematic strategies favor.

The Rate Cuts Vanished.

Jun 11, 2026

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4 min read

The Rate Cuts Vanished.

A hot May inflation report erased the Fed's rate-cut window for the year and repriced the most crowded growth names. The value-tilted, equal-weight build never owned that trade, so it had nothing to give back.

Stocks Are Bracing for a Number Bonds Are Shrugging Off

Jun 10, 2026

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4 min read

Stocks Are Bracing for a Number Bonds Are Shrugging Off

The VIX pops more than ten percent into this morning's inflation report, even as Treasury yields sit still. Why the value and cyclical side of the market is the defense this time, not cash.

Two Months of Rate-Cut Bets Meet Wednesday's Inflation Test

Jun 9, 2026

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4 min read

Two Months of Rate-Cut Bets Meet Wednesday's Inflation Test

The strong economy that pushed the Fed's first cut out of the conversation is the same one the equal-weight build was made for. A look at what's in going into Wednesday's number, and what is deliberately sitting it out.

The Worst Day Since October, and Oil's Not Done

Jun 8, 2026

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4 min read

The Worst Day Since October, and Oil's Not Done

A hot jobs report cracked the mega-cap growth complex on Friday and snapped a ten-week run. An equal-weight build with no single sector above the mid-teens is what kept the damage from spreading.

Too Many Jobs, Too Few Cuts

Jun 7, 2026

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6 min read

Too Many Jobs, Too Few Cuts

A blowout May payrolls report doubled the forecast, pushed the Fed's first cut further out, and snapped a nine-week win streak with the market's worst day since October. Value held its ground while growth broke.

Nobody's Flinching Before the Jobs Report

Jun 5, 2026

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4 min read

Nobody's Flinching Before the Jobs Report

Growth slips for a second morning into the May jobs report, the equal-weight lineup runs seven cyclical sectors at full weight with no cash buffer, and yesterday's leadership came from transports, small caps, and the banks.

Growth Sells Off Into Payrolls

Jun 4, 2026

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4 min read

Growth Sells Off Into Payrolls

Nasdaq futures slide better than a percent while the Dow leads and Bitcoin drops near five, the equal-weight lineup carries Technology as its heaviest sector weight into the pullback, and the May jobs report lands tomorrow morning.

Oil Jumps Again on Iran

Jun 3, 2026

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4 min read

Oil Jumps Again on Iran

Crude bounces better than two percent on a second Iran-headline jump in a week, the equal-weight cyclical lineup carries zero energy into the move, and ADP and ISM Services land before Friday's payrolls.

The Market Hit a Record. The Consumer Didn't Get the Memo.

Jun 2, 2026

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4 min read

The Market Hit a Record. The Consumer Didn't Get the Memo.

Consumer Discretionary and Utilities posted the two steepest sector losses in Monday's record session, yields ease four to five basis points across the curve into the 10 a.m. job-openings report, and the equal-weight cyclical lineup carries both near the bottom of its active band heading into Friday's payrolls.

The Curve Stays Steep, Financials Do the Work

Jun 1, 2026

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4 min read

The Curve Stays Steep, Financials Do the Work

The first session of June lands with crude bouncing on renewed Iran headlines, the Dow leading futures higher, and the equal-weight cyclical lineup carrying Financials at 13.4% into a week that ends on the May payrolls report.

Nine Straight Green Weeks

May 31, 2026

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6 min read

Nine Straight Green Weeks

The S&P closed its ninth straight winning week with the VIX at a four-month low, crude finished May down roughly seventeen percent on Strait of Hormuz de-escalation, and the cyclical lineup ran near ninety-eight percent deployed while three sectors and the blue-chip index stayed at zero.

Gold Pushes Higher Into PCE

May 29, 2026

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4 min read

Gold Pushes Higher Into PCE

Spot gold notches another move overnight with US futures green into the 8:30 ET Personal Income and PCE Price Indexes release, Treasury yields pull in across the curve into the binary catalyst, and the equal-weight cyclical lineup's 13.4% Materials position carries the equity-side metals exposure.

Dow Closes at Record

May 28, 2026

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4 min read

Dow Closes at Record

The blue-chip index lands a fresh all-time high on Wednesday's close, the systematic index sleeve carries the broad market and the Nasdaq across the same window, and the cyclical lineup holds seven sectors at equal weight into Friday's PCE release.

Crude Off Sixteen in a Week, Industrials Carries the Transports Bid

May 27, 2026

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6 min read

Crude Off Sixteen in a Week, Industrials Carries the Transports Bid

The oil-vol complex collapses 14.36% overnight on continued US-Iran de-escalation, transports led every major equity sector higher Tuesday at +2.13%, and the cyclical lineup's 13.8% Industrials position runs straight through the airline, rail, and trucking layer of the crude unwind.

Yields Pull In Hard, Utilities Carries the Grid Side

May 26, 2026

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6 min read

Yields Pull In Hard, Utilities Carries the Grid Side

The 10-year drops nine basis points to 4.481%, the long bond returns to exactly 5.00 after six straight sessions above, and the cyclical lineup's number-two weight runs the data-center power layer alongside the rate move.

The Dow Closed a Record. Happy Memorial Day!

May 24, 2026

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7 min read

The Dow Closed a Record. Happy Memorial Day!

Small caps ran +2.71%, the Dow added 2.31% to a fresh record close, Nvidia beat the quarter and the stock still slid, and seven equal-weight cyclical sectors absorbed every basis point of dispersion under the headline.

Yields Pull Back, Real Estate Holds the AI Build's Landlord Side

May 22, 2026

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5 min read

Yields Pull Back, Real Estate Holds the AI Build's Landlord Side

The 10-year eases to 4.56%, the long bond rests just below 5.09%, and the cyclical lineup's number-two weight runs the data-center and tower-REIT layer of the same capex cycle.

Crude Reloads Through One Hundred, Materials Holds the Inputs Side

May 21, 2026

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5 min read

Crude Reloads Through One Hundred, Materials Holds the Inputs Side

WTI rips 2.81% on fresh Iran headlines, the long bond holds five for a fifth straight session, and the cyclical lineup's lowest weight carries the inputs side of the reflation.

The Curve Steepens to Fifty-Five, Banks Take the Carry

May 20, 2026

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5 min read

The Curve Steepens to Fifty-Five, Banks Take the Carry

The 2-year eases three basis points, the long end holds 5.17% for a fourth straight session, and the banking sleeve sits at 13.7% inside the cyclical seven into FOMC day.