Brad Roth | The Signal

Brad Roth

Brad Roth

Daily market signals from Brad Roth: THOR Funds & Host of Behind the Ticker Podcast. $THIR $THLV

The Chicago Fed Says Demand Is Strong. Copper Agrees, Gold Doesn't

Sep 21, 2026

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4 min read

The Chicago Fed Says Demand Is Strong. Copper Agrees, Gold Doesn't

Copper is up 1.47% this morning while both precious metals fell, every Treasury maturity from six months out is lower, and crude gave back 2.7%. Four of the six sector positions in the even-weight strategy go ex-dividend today, so the first move on your screen this morning won't be a real one.

The S&P Finished Flat. The Dow Lost 890 Points

Sep 20, 2026

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6 min read

The S&P Finished Flat. The Dow Lost 890 Points

Nine of eleven American sectors fell on the week while the broad index closed 0.08% lower, and the two-year note added ten basis points against two at the ten-year. Healthcare led all eleven and ended the week as the largest of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

The Fed Cited Commodity Prices. Crude Broke $100 the Next Morning

Sep 17, 2026

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4 min read

The Fed Cited Commodity Prices. Crude Broke $100 the Next Morning

The Fed called out rising commodities as it pushed the projections higher, and West Texas is down another 3% under $100 this morning. Every Treasury maturity fell with it, which lands squarely on the most rate-sensitive of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Gold and Silver Rallied Overnight. The Fed Decides at 2:00

Sep 16, 2026

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4 min read

Gold and Silver Rallied Overnight. The Fed Decides at 2:00

Metals are bid hours before a quarter point is expected, and the ten-year has slipped back under 5%. Materials was one of only two American sectors to close green Tuesday, and it's the third largest of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

The Ten-Year Hasn't Been This High Since 2007. The Fed Decides Tomorrow

Sep 15, 2026

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4 min read

The Ten-Year Hasn't Been This High Since 2007. The Fed Decides Tomorrow

Yields rose at every point on the curve overnight and the long end sold off hardest, with a quarter-point increase near 90% priced for Wednesday afternoon. Healthcare is the largest of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy, and it is the one whose revenue the funds rate does not set.

Chipmakers Lost 9% in Europe. Dow Futures Lost 0.2%

Sep 14, 2026

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4 min read

Chipmakers Lost 9% in Europe. Dow Futures Lost 0.2%

A weekend essay asking the AI industry to slow down took ASM International down 9.4% and Infineon 7.8%, and American futures split along the same line. The index strategy owns the two oldest American benchmarks and went in 99% invested.

A Rate Hike Is Now 85% Priced. Stocks Rallied Into It

Sep 13, 2026

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6 min read

A Rate Hike Is Now 85% Priced. Stocks Rallied Into It

Odds of a Federal Reserve increase Wednesday moved from 58% to 85% across five sessions, and the S&P still closed Friday up 0.86%. Financials took the top position in the even-weight strategy, and it's the one sector whose revenue is set by the policy rate.

Crude Gave Back $3 Overnight. August's Inflation Report Won't Show It

Sep 11, 2026

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4 min read

Crude Gave Back $3 Overnight. August's Inflation Report Won't Show It

West Texas is down 3.17% and Brent 3.58% this morning, while August consumer prices are expected to more than triple month over month on the energy that is now unwinding. Utilities is one of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy and the one most tied to where the core rate lands.

Copper Fell 4%. The Inflation Report Is Expected to Get Worse

Sep 10, 2026

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4 min read

Copper Fell 4%. The Inflation Report Is Expected to Get Worse

Silver dropped 3% and platinum 3% in the same move while crude added another 1.1%, and the August producer price report lands at 8:30 with consensus at 5.3% year over year against 4.7% in July. Financials is the second largest of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Brent Broke $100. Europe Is Taking It Harder Than America Is

Sep 9, 2026

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4 min read

Brent Broke $100. Europe Is Taking It Harder Than America Is

Crude added 2.8% overnight and the German and French indexes fell near 2%, while American futures gave up a third of a point. Both strategies are built from American exposure alone.

Copper Is Up 2%. Small Business Optimism Fell Again

Sep 8, 2026

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4 min read

Copper Is Up 2%. Small Business Optimism Fell Again

Brent trades near $100 and the whole base metals board is green, while August small business optimism came in at 98.7 against a 99.4 consensus. Materials and industrials sit on opposite sides of that move, and the even-weight strategy owns both.

Payrolls Tripled the Forecast. The S&P Gained Nine Basis Points

Sep 6, 2026

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7 min read

Payrolls Tripled the Forecast. The S&P Gained Nine Basis Points

Crude rose almost 10% as the Hormuz blockade settled into something the market now treats as permanent, and August hiring came in at 162,000 against a forecast of 56,000. Utilities was the third strongest American sector and one of six the even-weight strategy owns.

Volatility Sits Near a One-Year Low. Last Month's Jobs Number Was Negative

Sep 4, 2026

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4 min read

Volatility Sits Near a One-Year Low. Last Month's Jobs Number Was Negative

The August payroll report lands at 8:30 with consensus at 55,000 after July came in at minus 23,000, and the volatility index closed at 14.32 against a 52-week low of 13.38. Healthcare and financials are the two largest of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Employers Announced 52,881 Job Cuts Last Month. The Atlanta Fed Says Growth Is Running 4.8%

Sep 3, 2026

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4 min read

Employers Announced 52,881 Job Cuts Last Month. The Atlanta Fed Says Growth Is Running 4.8%

Challenger's August tally ran 58% above July's while the third-quarter growth tracker sits near 5%, and the yen rose 1.6% overnight on expectations the Bank of Japan tightens again. Industrials is one of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

The Labor Market Blinked. The Bond Market Didn't

Sep 2, 2026

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4 min read

The Labor Market Blinked. The Bond Market Didn't

July job openings missed and June was revised down 177,000, yet the ten-year yield rose to 4.81% and September rate-increase odds sit near 68%. Healthcare is the largest of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Europe's Inflation Rate Jumped to 3.3%. The 30-Year Treasury Is at 5.27%

Sep 1, 2026

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4 min read

Europe's Inflation Rate Jumped to 3.3%. The 30-Year Treasury Is at 5.27%

Euro-area prices accelerated from 2.9% in July, Germany sold five-year paper 16 basis points higher than at the last auction, and long yields rose on both sides of the Atlantic. Financials is 16.4% of the even-weight strategy and one of six sector positions.

Brent Jumped 6% Overnight. Stock Futures Barely Blinked

Aug 31, 2026

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4 min read

Brent Jumped 6% Overnight. Stock Futures Barely Blinked

American and Iranian forces exchanged fire in the Gulf over the weekend, and September rate-increase odds moved to roughly a coin flip. Financials was one of five American sectors to close higher Friday and is one of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

The Fed's New Chair Speaks at Ten. So Does the American Consumer

Aug 28, 2026

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4 min read

The Fed's New Chair Speaks at Ten. So Does the American Consumer

Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote at the same minute the August sentiment survey lands, and futures put 36% odds on a rate increase next month. Business activity is running the other way from household mood, and materials and industrials are two of the six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Nvidia Made $96 Billion in a Quarter. The Fed Is Still Talking About a Hike

Aug 27, 2026

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4 min read

Nvidia Made $96 Billion in a Quarter. The Fed Is Still Talking About a Hike

Data center revenue grew 117% from a year ago, and all of it runs on electricity. Utilities is one of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

The Market Went Nowhere Overnight. It Knows What's Coming at 8:30

Aug 26, 2026

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4 min read

The Market Went Nowhere Overnight. It Knows What's Coming at 8:30

July core inflation lands an hour before the open, Nvidia reports after the close, and crude is lower for a third straight session. Materials and industrials are two of the six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

The Dow Was the Only Index That Closed Green. Crude Just Lost Another 3%

Aug 25, 2026

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4 min read

The Dow Was the Only Index That Closed Green. Crude Just Lost Another 3%

Four housing reports and a consumer confidence read land before ten this morning, and long yields are lower for a second straight session. Real estate and financials are two of the six sector positions in the low volatility strategy.

Washington Calls It an Economic D-Day. Oil Is Down 2%

Aug 24, 2026

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4 min read

Washington Calls It an Economic D-Day. Oil Is Down 2%

Bessent details the Iran campaign this afternoon, Canada dated its retaliation Friday night, and Nvidia reports Wednesday. The tariff list and the Gulf story land on opposite sides of industrials, which runs 15.9% of the even-weight strategy.

Walmart Beat, Raised Guidance, and Fell 9%

Aug 21, 2026

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4 min read

Walmart Beat, Raised Guidance, and Fell 9%

Sales growth slowed and shoppers are making trade-offs against $87 crude. Metals went the other way, and materials was the steadiest of the six sectors in the even-weight strategy Thursday.

The Minutes Were Hawkish. The Long Bond Rallied Anyway

Aug 20, 2026

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4 min read

The Minutes Were Hawkish. The Long Bond Rallied Anyway

Three officials voted to raise rates in July, and the thirty-year yield fell nine basis points once the market read the transcript. Walmart beat on revenue and earnings this morning and raised its outlook for the year.

Three Fed Officials Wanted a Hike in July.

Aug 19, 2026

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4 min read

Three Fed Officials Wanted a Hike in July.

Oil near $92 took the thirty-year Treasury to its highest level since 2007 without the Fed moving anything. Healthcare is the largest sector position in the even-weight strategy, and it rose 1.60% on the day technology fell 2.47%.